lysander-yuen-wk833OrQLJE-unsplash_1920_700-scaled

SIBE edition

Management of the future

Heiko von der Gracht, Stefanie Kisgen

A future-proof organization needs future-proof leadership. This book conveys the ten central building blocks of strategic foresight. By working through them, you will gain a mature awareness of the future and the necessary skills to set up suitable processes and methods within your own organization that are fit for the future.

Each of the three phases of the foresight process (scanning, foresight, transfer) is covered in detail. Readers are given an overview of the various methods of future management. Using practical examples, the authors show how decision-makers in all organizations can systematically develop future scenarios and transfer them to their own organizational context. Questions for understanding round off the chapters.

Readers thus acquire the future competence that can make a decisive contribution to the future at many interfaces in and to organizations: Strategy, controlling and consulting, leadership and transformation, innovation and risk management, marketing and communication.

1 The basics of futurology: fundamentals and overview

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Benavides Rincón, G., & Díaz-Domínguez, A. (2022). Assessing futures literacy as an academic competence for the deployment of foresight competencies. Futures, 135, 102872. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102872
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67-79. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report: Charting the Course Towards a More Resilient Europe. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/strategic_foresight_report_2020_1_0.pdf
European Commission. (2021). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/foresight_report_com750_en.pdf
Fergnani, A. (2020). Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Academy of Management Perspectives (in press). Doi: https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2018.0178
LugoSantiago, J. A. (2020). Leadership Practices in Foresight City. In J. A. LugoSantiago (Ed.), Leadership and Strategic Foresight in Smart Cities: A Futures Thinking Model (pp. 127-157). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49020-1_11
OECD. (2019). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies – Building Effective Governance in the Face of Uncertain Futures. www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic Foresight for Better Policies.pdf
Peterson, A., & Wu, A. (2021). Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management Journal, 42(13), 2357-2388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3327
Slaughter, R., & Hines, A. (Eds.). (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020: Association of Professional Futurists and Foresight International.
The Millennium Project. (2021). Global Futures Studies & Research. www.millennium-project.org

2 Organization is half the future: the foresight process

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(11), 135-148. https://hbr.org/2005/11/scanning-the-periphery
Gordon, A. V., Ramic, M., Rohrbeck, R., & Spaniol, M. J. (2020). 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119966. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119966
Popp, R., & Schüll, E. (Eds.). (2009). Futures research and shaping the future: contributions from science and practice. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4
Popp, R., & Zweck, A. (Eds.). (2013). Futurology in practice (Vol. 3). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019

3 Methods of strategic foresight

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579-1602. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Eds.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting-A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975-2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69-80. Retrieved via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (pp. 27-52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies-a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
Poli, R. (ed.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system-Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47-64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Ed.), The Future of Logistics (pp. 21-68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

4 Scenarios are both art and science

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Eds.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (pp. 37-48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Covid-19 food for thought: Future scenarios for a sustainable South Tyrol 2030+. Bolzano: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft.
www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Future Barometer “Drive Concepts of the Future”. In F.-R. Esch (Ed.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

5 Thinking outside the box

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75-94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology-V3.0 (pp. 1-59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transportation. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1-24. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079-1097. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (pp. 87-126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292-312. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research-Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66-73. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

6 Trend management and business wargaming

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al: McGraw-Hill Education.
Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Eds.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, pp. 210-220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523-543. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59-66. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291-303. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133-142. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

7 Developing future competence

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Association of Professional Futurists. (2016). Foresight Competency Model – 1.1. www.apf.org
Chen, K.-H., Hsu, L.-P., & Hoffman, J. (2021). Reevaluating the Foresight Styles Assessment: A Measurement of Futures Competency for University Students. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 19-32. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/02-Chen-Reevaluating-FSA-futures-compentency-ED-9-Layout.pdf
Dian, N. (2009). Foresight styles assessment: a theory based study in competency and change. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 59-74. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/133-A05.pdf
Durst, C., Durst, M., Kolonko, T., Neef, A., & Greif, F. (2015). A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 91-104. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.005
Gary, J. E. (2019). Foresight Training: Moving from Design to Evaluation. World Futures Review, 11(4), 351-359. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719851524
Gary, J. E., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study. Futures, 71, 132-145. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380-393. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15-28. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
Rohrbeck, R., Thom, N., & Arnold, H. (2015). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 115-126. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015
Salo, A., & Gustafsson, T. (2004). A group support system for foresight processes. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(3-4), 249-269. doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004985
World Economic Forum. (2021). Future Readiness of SMEs: Mobilizing the SME Sector to Drive Widespread Sustainability and Prosperity https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_Readiness_of_SMEs_2021.pdf

8 Looking to the future

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Fidler, D. (2015). Here’s How Managers Can Be Replaced by Software. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2015/04/heres-how-managers-can-be-replaced-by-software
Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2018). When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62, 729-754. doi: https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.11222
Harari, Y. N. (2018). Homo Deus: A brief history of tomorrow (reprint edition). New York: Harper Collins.
Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots – Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327622476_Rethinking_the_value_chain_A_study_on_AI_humanoids_and_robots_-_Artificial_Intelligence_Possible_business_application_and_development_scenarios_to_2040
Kling, M.-U. (2020). Qualityland: Visit Tomorrow, Today! London: Orion Publishing Co.
Parent-Rocheleau, X., & Parker, S. K. (2021). Algorithms as work designers: How algorithmic management influences the design of jobs. Human Resource Management Review, 32(3), 100838. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2021.100838
Petta Gomes da Costa, D. L. (2019). Reviewing the Concept of Technological Singularities: How Can It Explain Human Evolution? NanoEthics, 13(2), 119-130. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00339-2
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Vintage Books.
van der Laan, L., & Yap, J. (2016). On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Futures. In L. van der Laan & J. Yap (Eds.), Foresight & Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: Practice and Theory to Build Enterprises of the Future (pp. 181-198). Singapore: Springer Singapore. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-597-6_9

9 Shaping the future

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14-36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718-733. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373-391. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation-A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537-550. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Eds.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Future research in SMEs. Experiences of the Future Workshop 2020 of the general cargo cooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Eds.), Future research in practice test (pp. 231-248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380-393. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organizational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633-645. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

10 Managing future projects

Further sources: for reading, watching, surfing ...

Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Eds.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2nd ed., pp. 259-260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Ed.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (pp. 217-232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322-330. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654-1670. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1-22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (pp. 43-62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4

12 Literature

Further sources

Chapter 1 The basics of futurology: fundamentals and overview

Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Benavides Rincón, G., & Díaz-Domínguez, A. (2022). Assessing futures literacy as an academic competence for the deployment of foresight competencies. Futures, 135, 102872. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102872
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67-79. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report: Charting the Course Towards a More Resilient Europe. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/strategic_foresight_report_2020_1_0.pdf
European Commission. (2021). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/foresight_report_com750_en.pdf
Fergnani, A. (2020). Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Academy of Management Perspectives (in press). Doi: https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2018.0178
LugoSantiago, J. A. (2020). Leadership Practices in Foresight City. In J. A. LugoSantiago (Ed.), Leadership and Strategic Foresight in Smart Cities: A Futures Thinking Model (pp. 127-157). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49020-1_11
OECD. (2019). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies – Building Effective Governance in the Face of Uncertain Futures. http://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic%20Foresight%20for%20Better%20Policies.pdf
Peterson, A., & Wu, A. (2021). Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management Journal, 42(13), 2357-2388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3327
Slaughter, R., & Hines, A. (Eds.). (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020: Association of Professional Futurists and Foresight International.
The Millennium Project. (2021). Global Futures Studies & Research. www.millennium-project.org

Chapter 2 Organization is half the future: the foresight process

Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(11), 135-148. https://hbr.org/2005/11/scanning-the-periphery
Gordon, A. V., Ramic, M., Rohrbeck, R., & Spaniol, M. J. (2020). 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119966. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119966
Popp, R., & Schüll, E. (Eds.). (2009). Futures research and shaping the future: contributions from science and practice. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4
Popp, R., & Zweck, A. (Eds.). (2013). Futurology in practice (Vol. 3). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019

Chapter 3 Methods of strategic foresight

Armstrong, J. S. (ed.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579-1602. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Eds.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting-A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975-2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69-80. Retrieved via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (pp. 27-52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies – a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
Poli, R. (ed.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system-Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47-64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Ed.), The Future of Logistics (pp. 21-68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

Chapter 4 Scenarios are both art and science

Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Eds.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (pp. 37-48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Covid-19 food for thought: Future scenarios for a sustainable South Tyrol 2030+. Bolzano: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Future Barometer “Drive Concepts of the Future”. In F.-R. Esch (Ed.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

Chapter 5 Thinking outside the box

Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75-94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology-V3.0 (pp. 1-59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transportation. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1-24. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079-1097. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (pp. 87-126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292-312. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research-Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66-73. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

Chapter 6 Trend management and business wargaming

Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al: McGraw-Hill Education.
Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Eds.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, pp. 210-220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523-543. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59-66. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291-303. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133-142. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

Chapter 7 Developing future competence

Association of Professional Futurists. (2016). Foresight Competency Model – 1.1. www.apf.org
Chen, K.-H., Hsu, L.-P., & Hoffman, J. (2021). Reevaluating the Foresight Styles Assessment: A Measurement of Futures Competency for University Students. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 19-32. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/02-Chen-Reevaluating-FSA-futures-compentency-ED-9-Layout.pdf
Dian, N. (2009). Foresight styles assessment: a theory based study in competency and change. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 59-74. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/133-A05.pdf
Durst, C., Durst, M., Kolonko, T., Neef, A., & Greif, F. (2015). A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 91-104. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.005
Gary, J. E. (2019). Foresight Training: Moving from Design to Evaluation. World Futures Review, 11(4), 351-359. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719851524
Gary, J. E., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study. Futures, 71, 132-145. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380-393. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15-28. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
Rohrbeck, R., Thom, N., & Arnold, H. (2015). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 115-126. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015
Salo, A., & Gustafsson, T. (2004). A group support system for foresight processes. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(3-4), 249-269. doi: https://doi.org10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004985
World Economic Forum. (2021). Future Readiness of SMEs: Mobilizing the SME Sector to Drive Widespread Sustainability and Prosperity. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_Readiness_of_SMEs_2021.pdf

Chapter 8 Looking to the future

Fidler, D. (2015). Here’s How Managers Can Be Replaced by Software. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2015/04/heres-how-managers-can-be-replaced-by-software
Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2018). When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62, 729-754. doi: https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.11222
Harari, Y. N. (2018). Homo Deus: A brief history of tomorrow (reprint edition). New York: Harper Collins.
Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots – Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327622476_Rethinking_the_value_chain_A_study_on_AI_humanoids_and_robots_-Artificial_Intelligence_Possible_business_application_and_development_scenarios_to_2040
Kling, M.-U. (2020). Qualityland: Visit Tomorrow, Today! London: Orion Publishing Co.
Parent-Rocheleau, X., & Parker, S. K. (2021). Algorithms as work designers: How algorithmic management influences the design of jobs. Human Resource Management Review (in press), 100838. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2021.100838
Petta Gomes da Costa, D. L. (2019). Reviewing the Concept of Technological Singularities: How Can It Explain Human Evolution? NanoEthics, 13(2), 119-130. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00339-2
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Vintage Books.
van der Laan, L., & Yap, J. (2016). On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Futures. In L. van der Laan & J. Yap (Eds.), Foresight & Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: Practice and Theory to Build Enterprises of the Future (pp. 181-198). Singapore: Springer Singapore. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-597-6_9

Chapter 9 Shaping the future

Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14-36. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718-733. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373-391. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation – A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537-550. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Eds.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Future research in SMEs. Experiences of the Future Workshop 2020 of the general cargo cooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Eds.), Future research in practice test (pp. 231-248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380-393. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organizational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633-645. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

Chapter 10 Managing future projects

Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Eds.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2nd ed., pp. 259-260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Ed.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (pp. 217-232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322-330. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654-1670. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1-22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (pp. 43-62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4

References

Aengenheyster, S., Cuhls, K., Gerhold, L., Heiskanen-Schüttler, M., Huck, J., & Muszynska, M. (2017). Real-Time Delphi in practice – A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118, 15-27. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.023
Alster, N. (2003, 23.11.2003). It’s Just a Game, but Hollywood Is Paying Attention. The New York Times, p. 4. Retrieved via www.nytimes.com/2003/11/23/business/business-it-s-just-a-game-but-hollywood-is-paying-attention.html
Amara, R. (1991). Views on futures research methodology. Futures, 23(6), 645-649. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(91)90085-G
Anthony, S. D. (2016). Kodak’s Downfall Wasn’t About Technology. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/2016/07/kodaks-downfall-wasnt-about-technology
Anthony, S. D., Viguerie, S. P., Schwartz, E. I., & Van Landeghem, J. (2018). 2018 Corporate Longevity Forecast: Creative Destruction is Accelerating (Innosight Ed.). www.innosight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Innosight-Corporate-Longevity-2018.pdf.
Armstrong, J. S., Adya, M., & Collopy, F. (2001). Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (pp. 259-282). Boston, MA: Springer US.
Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2020). The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 96-98. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096520001420
Association of Professional Futurists. (2022). Foresight Competency Model. Retrieved via www.apf.org
Awad, E., Dsouza, S., Kim, R., Schulz, J., Henrich, J., Shariff, A., Bonnefon, J.-F., Rahwan, I. (2018). The moral machine experiment. Nature, 563(7729), 59-64. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0637-6
Balser, M., & Hägler, M. (2014, March 10). Plug out. Süddeutsche Zeitung, p. 3.
Bañuls, V. A., Skulimowski, A. M. J., & Begines, J. A. R. (2021). Disaster Resilience Modeling of Municipal Water Supply Infrastructures in the Context of Atmospheric Threats. Paper presented at the 18th ISCRAM Conference, Blacksburg, VA, USA. http://idl.iscram.org/files/victorabanuls/2021/2325_VictorA.Banuls_etal2021.pdf
Behrendt, S. (2009). Integrated technology roadmapping – An instrument for the sustainability orientation of companies and associations in early innovation phases. In R. Popp & E. Schüll (Eds.), Futures research and shaping the future (pp. 255-268). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4_19
Beiderbeck, D., Frevel, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Schmidt, S. L., & Schweitzer, V. M. (2021a). The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 165, 120577. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120577
Beiderbeck, D., Frevel, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Schmidt, S. L., & Schweitzer, V. M. (2021b). Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements. MethodsX, 8, 101401. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401
Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Belton, I., MacDonald, A., Wright, G., & Hamlin, I. (2019). Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 147, 72-82. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002
Bengston, D. N., Westphal, L. M., Dockry, M. J., & Crabtree, J. (2021). A “serious game” to explore alternative forestry futures. Journal of Forestry, fvab059, 1-5. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab059
Bibri, S. E. (2018). Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(1), 13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z
Bishop, P. C., & Hines, A. (2012). Leadership. In P. C. Bishop & A. Hines (Eds.), Teaching about the Future (pp. 225-235). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137020703_9
Bitkom e.V. (2019). Artificial intelligence should help the boss – or replace him [Press release]. Retrieved via www.bitkom.org/Presse/Presseinformation/Kuenstliche-Intelligenz-soll-dem-Chef-helfen-oder-ihn-ersetzen
Boschetti, F., Price, J., & Walker, I. (2016). Myths of the future and scenario archetypes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 76-85. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.009
Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795-812. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
Braun, K., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2018). Assessing future readiness: how a private audit contributes to addressing foresight. ECA Journal(10), 55-58. www.eca.europa.eu/lists/ecadocuments/journal18_10/journal18_10.pdf
Brockmann, K., Brösamle, K., Buehler, I. F., Döhrn, J., Freuding, B., Fricke, J., Hetzer, H., Huber, C. K., Keisinger, F., Schmertzing, L. (2013). Thinking ahead – Strategic foresight makes Germany fit for the future. Policy Brief Series. Retrieved via www.stiftung-nv.de/sites/default/files/pb_government_foresight_.pdf
Brown, J., & Isaacs, D. (2005). The world café: Shaping our futures through conversations that matter. San Francisco, CA: McGraw-Hill Professional.
Cagnin, C., & Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, & R. Barré (Eds.), Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy (pp. 1-13). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2_1
Calcei, D., & Ohana, M. (2017). The Influence of the Adult Entertainment Industry on Technology Standards for Computer, Video, and Smartphone Applications. Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 36(3), 14-20. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joe.21776
Carabias-Hütter, V. (2014). Introduction to the format of the Strategic Foresight Café Paper presented at the UN-CSTD, 2014-2015 Intersessional Panel, Geneva. https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2014_IPanel_ppt06_VicenteCarabias-Huetter_en.pdf
Cascio, J. (2020) Facing the Age of Chaos. Medium. Retrieved via https://medium.com/@cascio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d
Cauz, J. (2013). Encyclopædia Britannica’s President on Killing Off a 244-Year-Old Product. Harvard Business Review, 91(3), 39-42. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/2013/03/encyclopaedia-britannicas-president-on-killing-off-a-244-year-old-product
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Ed.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (pp. 217-232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chermack, T. J. (2017). Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack. New York: Routledge.
Christophilopoulos, E. (2019). SES Work/Tech 2050. Retrieved via www.futures.gr/en/2019/02/01/ses-work-tech-2050/
Cole, A., & Singer, P. W. (2020). Thinking The Unthinkable With Useful Fiction. Journal of Future Conflict, Fall 2020(2), 1-13. www.queensu.ca/psychology/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.psycwww/files/files/Journal
Collingridge, D. G. (1982). The Social Control of Technology. London: Continuum International Publishing Group.
Collopy, F., & Armstrong, J. S. (1992). Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations. Management Science, 38(10), 1394-1414. doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.10.1394
Commission on Science and Technology for Development. (2015). Strategic foresight for the post-2015 development agenda (E/CN.16/2015/3). Retrieved via https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ecn162015d3_en.pdf
Constine, J. (2017). Facebook is building brain-computer interfaces for typing and skin-hearing. Retrieved via https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/19/facebook-brain-interface
Cornelius, P., Van de Putte, A., & Romani, M. (2005). Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell. California Management Review, 48(1), 92-109. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/41166329
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67-79. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
Daepp, M. I. G., Hamilton, M. J., West, G. B., & Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2015). The mortality of companies. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 12(106), 20150120. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0120
Daheim, C., & Uerz, G. (2008). Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 321-336. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000047
Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
de Geus, A. (2002). The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment. Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business School Press.
de Loë, R. C., Melnychuk, N., Murray, D., & Plummer, R. (2016). Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 78-88. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.009
Downes, L., & Nunes, P. (2013). Blockbuster Becomes a Casualty of Big Bang Disruption. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/2013/11/blockbuster-becomes-a-casualty-of-big-bang-disruption
Duncan, R. B. (1972). Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(3), 313-327. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2392145
Ettel, A. (2019). World of the future: Europe is aging – a museum dependent on electricity from Africa. Retrieved via www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article192166549/Science-Fiction-Wo-deutsche-Unternehmen-an-der-Zukunft-arbeiten.html
Fergnani, A. (2019). The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life. foresight, 21(4), 445-466. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2018-0086
Fink, A., & Siebe, A. (2006). Handbuch Zukunftsmanagement: Werkzeuge der strategischen Planung und Früherkennung. Frankfurt, New York: Campus.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Foster, R., & Kaplan, S. (2011). Creative Destruction: Why companies that are built to last underperform the market – And how to fully transform them: Currency.
Frank, J. (2018). Future Competency Management Assessment – Empirical development of a competency model to assess the future viability of an organization. (MSc), Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied Sciences, Bonn.
Galeon, D., & Reedy, C. (2017). Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045 -Get ready for humanity 2.0. Futurism. Retrieved via https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045
Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (June 2006). Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service. HBS Case Collection, (Case No. 9-306-002). Boston, MA.
Gary, J. E. (2010). Foresight Educator’s Bootcamp. World Future Conference. Vancouver, Canada.
Gausemeier, J., & Fink, A. (1999). Führung im Wandel – Ein ganzheitliches Modell zur zukunftsorientierten Unternehmensgestaltung. Munich, Vienna: Carl Hanser.
Gausemeier, J., Fink, A., & Schlake, O. (1998). Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 59(2), 111-130. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00166-2
Genus, A., & Stirling, A. (2018). Collingridge and the dilemma of control: Towards responsible and accountable innovation. Research Policy, 47(1), 61-69. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2017.09.012
Georgiadou, M. C., & Hacking, T. (2012). Strategies and techniques to future-proof the energy performance of housing developments. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 6(2), 160-174. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17506221211242040
Georgiadou, M. C., Hacking, T., & Guthrie, P. (2012). A conceptual framework for future-proofing the energy performance of buildings. Energy Policy, 47, 145-155. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.039
Geschka, H., & Hahnenwald, H. (2013). Scenario-Based Exploratory Technology Roadmaps – A Method for the Exploration of Technical Trends. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Eds.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (pp. 123-136). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_8
Gladwell, M. (2002). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (Reprint ed.). Boston et al: Back Bay Books.
Glenn, J. C. (2009). Genius forecasting, intuition and vision. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology 3.0 (pp. 1-29). New York: The Millennium Project.
Gnatzy, T., Warth, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2011). Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1681-1694. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.006
Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321-333. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005
Gordon, T. J. (2009). Cross-impact analysis. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology – V3.0 (pp. 1-21). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology – V3.0 (pp. 1-59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(68)80003-5
Gryc, W., Helander, M., Lawrence, R., Liu, Y., Perlich, C., Reddy, C., & Rosset, S. (2009). Looking for Great Ideas: Analyzing the Innovation Jam. Paper presented at the Advances in Web Mining and Web Usage Analysis, Berlin, Heidelberg. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00528-2_2
Gustafson, J. L. (2011). Moore’s Law. In D. Padua (Ed.), Encyclopedia of parallel computing (pp. 1177-1184). Boston, MA: Springer US.
Hastings, R., & Meyer, E. (2020). No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention. New York, NY: Penguin.
Hines, A., Gary, J. E., Daheim, C., & van der Lann, L. (2017). Building Foresight Capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model. World Futures Review, 9(3), 123-141. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717715637
Horton, A. (1999). A simple guide to sucessful foresight. Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 1(1), 5-9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636689910802052
Huang, J. (2021). NVIDIA to Build Earth-2 Supercomputer to See Our Future [Press Release]. Retrieved via https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/11/12/earth-2-supercomputer
Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Rethinking value creation: Of humanoids, AIs and robots. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI’s_and_colleague_robots
iKnow Project team. (2022). Welcome to iKnow: The Innovation, Foresight and Horizon Scanning System. Retrieved via http://wiwe.iknowfutures.org/
Jefferson, M. (2012). Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(1), 186-197. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.007
Johnson, B. D. (2011). Science fiction prototyping: Designing the future with science fiction. Synthesis Lectures on Computer Science, 3(1), 1-190. doi: https://doi.org/10.2200/S00336ED1V01Y201102CSL003
Jünger, S., Payne, S. A., Brine, J., Radbruch, L., & Brearley, S. G. (2017). Guidance on Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) in palliative care: Recommendations based on a methodological systematic review. Palliative Medicine, 31(8), 684-706. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216317690685
Kahn, J. (2019, September 26). Learning to love the bot: Managers need to understand A.I. logic before using it as a business tool. Fortune. Retrieved via https://fortune.com/2019/09/26/ai-business-strategy-management
Kanama, D. (2013). Development of Technology Foresight: Integration of Technology Roadmapping and the Delphi Method. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Eds.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (pp. 151-171). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_10
Karanfil, Ö., Hosseinichimeh, N., & Duggan, J. (2020). System dynamics and bio-medical modeling. System Dynamics Review, 36(4), 389-396. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1675
Kayser, V., & Blind, K. (2017). Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 208-215. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.017
Kayser, V., & Shala, E. (2020). Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 156, 120086. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120086
Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15-28. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
Klein, R., Meeuwsen, S., & Slinger, J. (2016). Strategies in an uncertain world: A Systems Dynamics analysis of different flood protection strategies. In S.D. Society (Ed.) Proceedings of the 34th International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Delft, Netherlands. http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:676d67a3-149c-46f2-9ed5-9d70ee240077
Kleiner, A. (2003). The man who saw the future. strategy+business, Spring 2003(30). Retrieved via https://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220
Kok, J., & Van den Heuvel, S. C. (Eds.). (2019). Leading in a VUCA World: Integrating Leadership, Discernment and Spirituality. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98884-9
Kovaleva, A. (2012). The IE-4: Construction and Validation of a Short Scale for the Assessment of Locus of Contro. (Dr. rer. soc.), University of Mannheim, Germany, Mannheim. Retrieved via https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-371199
KPMG Germany. (2022). Future Readiness: Analyze how fit your organization is for the future. Retrieved via https://atlas.kpmg.com
Kreibich, R. (2006). Futures Studies. Working Report No. 23/2006. IZT – Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment. Berlin. Retrieved via https://www.izt.de/fileadmin/downloads/pdf/IZT_AB23.pdf
Kuosa, T. (2011). Evolution of futures studies. Futures, 43(3), 327-336. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.04.001
Kurzweil, R. (2006). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin Books.
Kurzweil, R. (2014). The Singularity is Near. In R. L. Sandler (Ed.), Ethics and Emerging Technologies (pp. 393-406). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137349088_26
Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(5), 467-482. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.002
Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D. S., & Zsoter, E. (2016). ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(22), 11,852-811,858. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320
Lechler, S., Canzaniello, A., Roßmann, B., von der Gracht, H. A., & Hartmann, E. (2019). Real-time data processing in supply chain management: revealing the uncertainty dilemma. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 49(10), 1003-1019. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-12-2017-0398
Lee, S. (2013). Linking Technology Roadmapping to Patent Analysis. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Eds.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (pp. 267-284). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_17
Li, X., Xie, Q., Jiang, J., Zhou, Y., & Huang, L. (2019). Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146, 687-705. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.004
Liebl, F. (2000). Der Schock des Neuen: Entstehung und Management von Issues und Trends: Murmann Verlag DE.
Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (1975). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (Vol. 18). Reading: Addison-Wesley.
Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Delphi: A brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1712-1719. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.011
Loeffler, J. (2019). Google’s Quantum Processor May Achieve Quantum Supremacy in Months. Interesting Engineering. Retrieved via https://interestingengineering.com/googles-quantum-processor-may-achieve-quantum-supremacy-in-months
Lovins, A. B. (1976a). Energy strategy: the road not taken. Foreign Affairs, 55, 65-96.
Lovins, A. B. (1976b). Exploring energy-efficient futures for Canada. Conserver Society Notes, 1(4), 5-16.
Lovins, A. B. (1977). Soft energy paths: Toward a durable peace. San Francisco, CA: Friends of the earth international.
Loye, D. (1980). Personality and prediction. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 16(2), 93-104. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(80)90001-3
Luoto, L., & Lonkila, A. (2018). The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Eds.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (pp. 105-131). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_7
Mainzer, K. (2021). Artificial Intelligence – The Future of Governance and Leadership? In S. Kisgen (Ed.), Leadership – Transdisciplinary Writings (Dedicated to Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c. Werner G. Faix on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday) (1st ed., pp. 29-56). Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
Marien, M. (2002). Futures studies in the 21st century: a reality-based view. Futures, 34(3-4), 261-281. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00043-X
Markmann, C., Spickermann, A., von der Gracht, H. A., & Brem, A. (2021). Improving the question formulation in Delphi-like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. Futures & Foresight Science, 3(1), e56. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.56
Martin, W. T., & Sharp, J. M. (1973). Reverse factor analysis: A modification of relevance tree techniques. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 4(4), 355-373. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(73)90076-0
Mauksch, S., von der Gracht, H. A., & Gordon, T. J. (2020). Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119982. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.
Meyer, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Hartmann, E. (2020). How Organizations Prepare for the Future: A Comparative Study of Firm Size and Industry. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 511-523. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.2992539
Moore, G. E. (1965). Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Electronics, 38(8), 114-117. https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/moores-law-electronics.pdf
Müller, A. W. (2008). Strategic Foresight: Processes of strategic trend and future research in companies. University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen. (Dissertation No. 3521)
Müllert, N., & Jungk, R. (1987). Future Workshops: How to create desirable futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions.
Münch, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2021). A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021. Futures & Foresight Science, 3(3-4), e88. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.88
Murty, D. S., & Wakeford, T. (2011). Farmer foresight: an experiment in South India. In M. Pimbert & T. Wakeford (Eds.), Deliberative Democracy and Citizen Empowerment (Vol. PLA Notes 40, pp. 46-51). London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/G01291.pdf
Nazarko, J., Ejdys, J., Halicka, K., Magruk, A., Nazarko, Ł., & Skorek, A. (2017). Application of enhanced SWOT analysis in the future-oriented public management of technology. Procedia engineering, 182, 482-490. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.140
Novak, M. (2022). Paleofuture: The history of the future. Retrieved via https://paleofuture.com/
O’Reilly, L. (2017). A Japanese ad agency invented an AI creative director – and ad execs preferred its ad to a human’s. Business Insider. Retrieved via www.businessinsider.com/mccann-japans-ai-creative-director-creates-better-ads-than-a-human-2017-3
Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
Petersen, J. L. (2000). Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (2nd ed.): Madison Books.
Fantastic Library Wetzlar. (2019). Future Life: We read the future. Science fiction as a hidden treasury for technical developments – An interdisciplinary future project. Retrieved via https://www.phantastik.eu/images/future%20life_englisch.pdf
Phillips, F. (2019). The Present and the Future. In F. Phillips (Ed.), What About the Future? New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity (pp. 119-131). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8_11
Poli, R. (2018). A note on the classification of future-related methods. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(1), 15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0145-9
Popper, R. (2008a). Foresight Methodology. In L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena, M. Keenan, I. Miles, & R. Popper (Eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (pp. 44-88). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Popper, R. (2008b). How are foresight methods selected? Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 10(6), 62-89. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586
Popper, R. (2011). About Futures Diamond: The Framework. Retrieved via www.futuresdiamond.com/the-diamond
Porter, M. E. (2008). The five competitive forces that shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 86(1), 78-93. https://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). Rethinking the 2×2 scenario method: Grid or frames? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86, 254-264. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.020
RAND Corporation. (2021). A Brief History of RAND. Retrieved via www.rand.org/about/history/a-brief-history-of-rand.html
RAND Corporation (ed.) (1946). Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship (Document Number: SM-11827 ed.). Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/special_memoranda/SM11827.html
Randers, J., & Göluke, U. (2007). Forecasting turning points in shipping freight rates: lessons from 30 years of practical effort. System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3), 253-284. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.376
Rich, B. D. (2013). The 10 Principles Of Future-Proofing Historic Buildings: And the Role of Computational Simulation Software in Future-Proofing. Retrieved via https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25063.29603
Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked problems – social messes: Decision support modeling with morphological analysis (Vol. 17). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9
Robert Jungk Library for Future Studies (JBZ). (2021). The JBZ. Retrieved via https://jungk-bibliothek.org/die-jbz-2
Rohrbeck, R. (2011). Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg: Physica. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2626-5
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129, 105-116. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013
Rüppel, H. (2004). Zukunftswerkstatt-online – Wege zu einer telekooperativen Lernkultur? Explorative exploration of the theory and practice of a telecooperative learning environment (Dr. phil.), University of Kassel, Kassel. Retrieved via http://www.urn.fi/urn:nbn:de:hebis:34-1507
Sarkar, A. (2016). We live in a VUCA World: the importance of responsible leadership. Development and Learning in Organizations: An International Journal, 30(3). Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/DLO-07-2015-0062
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1998). Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning. In L. Fahey & R. M. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the Future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios (pp. 422-431). New York et al: John Wiley & Sons.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2008). Our Decision Model. Critical Thinking: Real-World, Real-Time Decisions. Philadelphia, US.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2020). How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(3-4), e35. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.35
Schoemaker, P. J. H., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Superforecasting: How to upgrade your company’s judgment. Harvard Business Review, 94(5), 73-78. https://hbr.org/2016/05/superforecasting-how-to-upgrade-your-companys-judgment
Šefčovič, M. (2021). College read-out on the 2021 Strategic Foresight Report by Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič. Retrieved via https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/read_21_4623
Shead, S. L. (2021, April 9). Elon Musk’s Neuralink explains how a monkey used its brain-computer tech to play Pong. CNBC News. Retrieved via www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/elon-musks-neuralink-shows-video-of-monkey-using-mind-to-play-pong.html
Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3-4), 349-363. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00049-0
SpaceX. (2022). Mars & Beyond: The Road to Making Humanity Multiplanetary. Retrieved via www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars
Speth, F. (2021, December 16). The future of futurology. Top Trends for 2022 and Beyond. GS1 Xmas Special meetup.
Spickermann, A., Zimmermann, M., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection – Exploring diversity effects on response behavior in foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 85, 105-120. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.04.009
Sprenger, S. (2021). French sci-fi writers set out to ‘scare’ the military establishment. DefenseNews. Retrieved via www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/04/30/french-sci-fi-writers-set-out-to-scare-the-military-establishment
Steinmüller, A., & Steinmüller, K. (2004). Wild Cards – When the improbable occurs (2nd ed.). Hamburg: Murmann.
Sweeney, J. A., Baker, M. T., Daheim, C., Dujardin, Y., Dunagan, J., Eklund, K., Haldenby, T., Rosa, A. B., Stovall, G., Yeomans, G. (2019). Anticipatory Games and Simulations. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making (pp. 1399-1427). Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_94-1
System Alliance (ed.) (2012). System Alliance Future Report 2.0. Niederaula: System Alliance.
Taleb, N. N. (2010). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd ed.). New York: Random House.
The Futures Group (2009). Relevance Tress. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology-V3.0 (pp. 1-11). Washington: The Millennium Project.
The Sustainable Development Solutions Network. (2015). SDG Guide: Tools for designing SDG strategies and roadmaps (Chapter 3). Retrieved via https://sdg.guide/chapter-3-tools-for-designing-sdg-strategies-and-roadmaps-a8172680d5ef
Thomas, A. (2017). Super-intelligence and eternal life: transhumanism’s faithful follow it blindly into a future for the elite. The Conversation – Academic rigor, journalistic flair. Retrieved via https://theconversation.com/super-intelligence-and-eternal-life-transhumanisms-faithful-follow-it-blindly-into-a-future-for-the-elite-78538
Turoff, M. (1970). The design of a policy Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2(2), 149-171. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(70)90161-7
Vallet, F., Puchinger, J., Millonig, A., Lamé, G., & Nicolaï, I. (2020). Tangible futures: Combining scenario thinking and personas – A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, 117, 102513. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513
van ‘t Klooster, S. A., & van Asselt, M. B. A. (2006). Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures, 38(1), 15-30. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.04.019
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Vlastelica, R. (2020). Netflix Market Cap Surpasses Disney Amid ‘Stay at Home’ Orders. Retrieved via www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/netflix-market-cap-surpasses-disney-amid-stay-at-home-orders
von der Gracht, H. A. (2012). Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: Review and implications for future quality assurance. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(8), 1525-1536. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013
von der Gracht, H. A. (2013a). Make the future: Future Tool Box. In H. A. von der Gracht (Ed.), Survive: How managers stay successful in the future (pp. 207-233). Munich: Redline.
von der Gracht, H. A. (2013b). Survive: How managers stay successful in the future. Munich: Redline Wirtschaft.
von der Gracht, H. A. (2020). Development of (post-)pandemic baseline scenarios. Cologne: KPMG Germany.
von der Gracht, H. A., Bañuls, V. A., Turoff, M., Skulimowski, A. M. J., & Gordon, T. J. (2015). Foresight support systems: The future role of ICT for foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 1-6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.010
von der Gracht, H. A., Kisgen, S., Lange, N., & Jalufka, J. (2021). The future of the European generics & biosimilars industry 2030plus. Stuttgart: Steinbeis Edition.
von der Gracht, H. A., Salcher, M., & Kerssenbrock, N. G. (2016a). Liberate Your Mind: Wild Cards. In H. A. von der Gracht, M. Salcher, & N. G. Kerssenbrock (Eds.), The Energy Challenge: A License for Navigating the Future (pp. 70-81). Munich: Redline Economics.
von der Gracht, H. A., Salcher, M., & Kerssenbrock, N. G. (2016b). Looking Beyond the Horizon: Four Scenarios. In H. A. von der Gracht, M. Salcher, & N. G. Kerssenbrock (Eds.), The Energy Challenge: A License for Navigating the Future (pp. 36-54). Munich: Redline Economics.
von der Gracht, H. A., & Stillings, C. (2013). An innovation-focused scenario process – A case from the materials producing industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 599-610. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.009
von Reibnitz, U. H. (2010). There Is Always an Alternative: Discover and Shape Your Personal and Professional Future: BoD-Books on Demand.
Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 5(3), 10-21. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379
Voros, J. (2017). Big History and anticipation: Using Big History as a framework for global foresight. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making (pp. 1-40). Cham: Springer International. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_95-1
Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139-150. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids
Wack, P. (1985b). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 72-89. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead
Watson, D., Clark, L. A., & Tellegen, A. (1988). Development and validation of brief measures of positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54(6), 1063-1070. doi: https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.6.1063
Wieduwilt, F. M., & Riemer, F. (2021). The Future Game 2050. Retrieved via www.thefuturegame2050.com
Wilkinson, A., & Kupers, R. (2013). Living in the futures. Harvard Business Review, 91(5), 118-127. Retrieved via https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures
Willyard, C. H., & McClees, C. W. (1987). Motorola’s Technology Roadmap Process. Research Management, 30(5), 13-19. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00345334.1987.11757057
World Future Society. (2021). World Future Society® Awaken the Futurist Mindset in everyone in order to co-create new civilization systems. Retrieved via www.worldfuture.org
Zimmermann, M., Darkow, I.-L., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2012). Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness-the case of electric mobility in Germany. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(9), 1605-1621. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.016

Liane Windisch

Director Innovation and International Projects
Email: windisch@steinbeis-sibe.de
Phone: +49 70 32 – 94 58 – 92

Contact

Our leadership development program

Diploma of Performance and Leadership

SIBE edition

Leadership. Education. Personality.

Leadership and Performance

Leadership Competency (coming soon)

Digital Leadership and Artifical Intelligence (coming soon)

Ethical Leadership (coming soon)

Leadership. Transformation. Innovation (coming soon)

Leadership and Futures Research (coming soon)

Leadership and Sustainability (coming soon)

Leadership and Networks (coming soon)