$

SIBE

$

Über uns

$

Mission/Leitbild

$

Geschichte

$

Team

$

Forschungsschwerpunkte

$

Publikationen

$

Presse

$

Stellen bei der SIBE

$

Standorte

$

Rechtliches

$

Impressum

$

Datenschutzerklärung

$

Innovation Projects

$

Innovation Projects

$

Internationale Märkte

$

Digitalisierung

$

Nachhaltigkeit

$

Allgemeine Projekte

$

Projektbeispiele

$

Personal

$

Rekrutierung

$

Mitarbeiterbindung

$

Employer Branding

$

Persönlichkeitsentwicklung

$

Partner

$

Future Foresight

$

School

$

Programme

$

M.Sc. International Management – SIBE-Management-Master

$

German-US-Dual-Degree (M.Sc./MBA)

$

M.Sc. in Digital Leadership

$

Dual Program Innovation Management – MBA General Management & Quantum Diploma

$

International Rail Management

$

LL.M. in International Business Law

$

Doctor of Business Administration (DBA)

$

Erfahrungsberichte

$

Lehre

$

Mitglieder

$

Systemakkreditierung

$

Qualität

$

Partnerhochschulen

$

Studierende & Alumni

$

Mentoring

$

Für Gründer

$

Benefits & Netzwerke

$

Empfehlungsprämien

$

E-Campus

$

Stellenangebote

$

Projektbeispiele

$

Downloads

$

FAQ

SIBE edition

Management der Zukunft

Heiko von der Gracht, Stefanie Kisgen

Eine zukunftsfähige Organisation braucht zukunftsfähige Führung. Dieses Buch vermittelt die zehn zentralen Bausteine der Strategischen Vorausschau. Wer sie durcharbeitet, gewinnt das gereifte Zukunftsbewusstsein und die nötige Kompetenz, um die geeigneten Prozesse und Methoden innerhalb der eigenen Organisation zukunftsfähig aufzustellen.

Jede der drei Phasen des Vorausschau-Prozesses (Scanning, Foresight, Transfer) wird im Detail behandelt. Die Leserinnen und Leser erhalten einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Methoden des Zukunftsmanagements. Mittels praktischer Beispiele zeigen die Autoren, wie Entscheider aller Organisationen systematisch Zukunftsszenarien entwickeln und auf den eigenen Organisationskontext transferieren können. Fragen zum Verständnis runden die Kapitel ab.

Leserinnen und Leser erwerben damit jene Zukunftskompetenz, die an vielen Schnittstellen in und zu Organisationen einen zukunftsentscheidenden Beitrag leisten kann: Strategie, Controlling und Consulting, Leadership und Transformation, Innovations- und Risikomanagement, Marketing sowie Kommunikation.

1 Das kleine Einmaleins der Zukunftsforschung: Grundlagen und Überblick

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

2 Organisation ist die halbe Zukunft: Der Vorausschau-Prozess

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

3 Methoden der Strategischen Vorausschau

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Armstrong, J. S. (Hrsg.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
  • Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579–1602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
  • Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
  • Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Hrsg.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
  • Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting–A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
  • Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69–80. Abgerufen via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
  • Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Hrsg.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (S. 27–52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
  • Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
  • Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
  • Poli, R. (Hrsg.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
  • Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
  • Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system—Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47–64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Hrsg.), The Future of Logistics (S. 21–68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

4 Szenarien sind Kunst und Wissenschaft zugleich

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
  • Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Hrsg.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (S. 37–48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
  • Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Denkanstoß Covid-19: Zukunftsszenarien für ein nachhaltiges Südtirol 2030+. Bozen: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
  • Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
  • Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft.
  • www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
    Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
  • Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2. Aufl.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Zukunftsbarometer „Antriebskonzepte der Zukunft“. In F.-R. Esch (Hrsg.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
  • Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

5 Der Blick über den Tellerrand

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75–94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
  • Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 (S. 1–59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
  • Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transport. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
  • Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079–1097. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
  • Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (S. 87–126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
  • Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292–312. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
  • Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research—Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66–73. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

6 Trendmanagement und Business Wargaming

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
  • Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al.: McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Hrsg.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, S. 210–220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
  • Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523–543. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
  • Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
  • Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59–66. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
  • Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291–303. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
  • Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
  • Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
  • Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

7 Zukunftskompetenz entwickeln

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

8 Blick in die Zukunft

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

9 Zukunft gestalten

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14–36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
  • Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718–733. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
  • Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373–391. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
  • Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
  • Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation—A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537–550. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
  • Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
    Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Hrsg.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Mittelstand. Erfahrungen der Zukunfts-Werkstatt 2020 der Stückgutkooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Hrsg.), Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (S. 231–248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
  • Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633–645. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

10 Zukunftsprojekte managen

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …
  • Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
  • Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Hrsg.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2. Aufl., S. 259–260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Hrsg.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (S. 217–232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
  • Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322–330. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
  • Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654–1670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
  • Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
  • Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1–22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
  • Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Hrsg.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (S. 43–62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4

12 Literatur

Weiterführende Quellen

Kapitel 1 Das kleine Einmaleins der Zukunftsforschung: Grundlagen und Überblick

Kapitel 2 Organisation ist die halbe Zukunft: Der Vorausschau-Prozess

Kapitel 3 Methoden der Strategischen Vorausschau

  • Armstrong, J. S. (Hrsg.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
  • Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579–1602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
  • Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
  • Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Hrsg.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
  • Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting–A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
    Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69–80. Abgerufen via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
  • Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Hrsg.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (S. 27–52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
  • Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
  • Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies – a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
  • Poli, R. (Hrsg.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
  • Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
  • Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system—Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47–64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Hrsg.), The Future of Logistics (S. 21–68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

Kapitel 4 Szenarien sind Kunst und Wissenschaft zugleich

  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
  • Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Hrsg.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (S. 37–48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
  • Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Denkanstoß Covid-19: Zukunftsszenarien für ein nachhaltiges Südtirol 2030+. Bozen: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
  • Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
  • Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
  • Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
  • Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2. Aufl.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Zukunftsbarometer „Antriebskonzepte der Zukunft“. In F.-R. Esch (Hrsg.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
  • Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

Kapitel 5 Der Blick über den Tellerrand

  • Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75–94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
  • Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 (S. 1–59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
  • Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transport. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
  • Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079–1097. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
  • Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (S. 87–126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
  • Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292–312. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
  • Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research—Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66–73. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

Kapitel 6 Trendmanagement und Business Wargaming

  • Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
  • Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al.: McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Hrsg.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, S. 210–220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
  • Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523–543. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
  • Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
  • Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59–66. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
  • Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291–303. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
  • Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
  • Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
  • Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

Kapitel 7 Zukunftskompetenz entwickeln

Kapitel 8 Blick in die Zukunft

Kapitel 9 Zukunft gestalten

  • Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14–36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
  • Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718–733. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
  • Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373–391. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
  • Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
  • Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation – A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537-550. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
  • Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
    Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Hrsg.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Mittelstand. Erfahrungen der Zukunfts-Werkstatt 2020 der Stückgutkooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Hrsg.), Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (S. 231–248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
  • Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633–645. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

Kapitel 10 Zukunftsprojekte managen

  • Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
  • Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Hrsg.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2. Aufl., S. 259–260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Hrsg.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (S. 217–232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
  • Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322–330. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
  • Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654–1670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
  • Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
  • Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1–22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
  • Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Hrsg.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (S. 43–62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4
Referenzen
  • Aengenheyster, S., Cuhls, K., Gerhold, L., Heiskanen-Schüttler, M., Huck, J., & Muszynska, M. (2017). Real-Time Delphi in practice – A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118, 15–27. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.023
  • Alster, N. (2003, 23.11.2003). It’s Just a Game, but Hollywood Is Paying Attention. The New York Times, S. 4. Abgerufen via www.nytimes.com/2003/11/23/business/business-it-s-just-a-game-but-hollywood-is-paying-attention.html
  • Amara, R. (1991). Views on futures research methodology. Futures, 23(6), 645–649. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(91)90085-G
  • Anthony, S. D. (2016). Kodak’s Downfall Wasn’t About Technology. Harvard Business Review. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/2016/07/kodaks-downfall-wasnt-about-technology
  • Anthony, S. D., Viguerie, S. P., Schwartz, E. I., & Van Landeghem, J. (2018). 2018 Corporate Longevity Forecast: Creative Destruction is Accelerating (Innosight Ed.). www.innosight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Innosight-Corporate-Longevity-2018.pdf.
  • Armstrong, J. S., Adya, M., & Collopy, F. (2001). Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation. In J. S. Armstrong (Hrsg.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (S. 259–282). Boston, MA: Springer US.
  • Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2020). The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election. PS: Political Science & Politics, 54(1), 96–98. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096520001420
  • Association of Professional Futurists. (2022). Foresight Competency Model. Abgerufen via www.apf.org
    Awad, E., Dsouza, S., Kim, R., Schulz, J., Henrich, J., Shariff, A., Bonnefon, J.-F., Rahwan, I. (2018). The moral machine experiment. Nature, 563(7729), 59–64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0637-6
  • Balser, M., & Hägler, M. (2014, 10. März). Stecker raus. Süddeutsche Zeitung, S. 3.
  • Bañuls, V. A., Skulimowski, A. M. J., & Begines, J. A. R. (2021). Disaster Resilience Modeling of Municipal Water Supply Infrastructures in the Context of Atmospheric Threats. Paper presented at the 18th ISCRAM Conference, Blacksburg, VA, USA. http://idl.iscram.org/files/victorabanuls/2021/2325_VictorA.Banuls_etal2021.pdf
  • Behrendt, S. (2009). Integriertes Technologie-Roadmapping – Ein Instrument zur Nachhaltigkeitsorientierung von Unternehmen und Verbänden in frühen Innovationsphasen. In R. Popp & E. Schüll (Hrsg.), Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung (S. 255–268). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4_19
  • Beiderbeck, D., Frevel, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Schmidt, S. L., & Schweitzer, V. M. (2021a). The impact of COVID-19 on the European football ecosystem – A Delphi-based scenario analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 165, 120577. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120577
  • Beiderbeck, D., Frevel, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Schmidt, S. L., & Schweitzer, V. M. (2021b). Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements. MethodsX, 8, 101401. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401
  • Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
  • Belton, I., MacDonald, A., Wright, G., & Hamlin, I. (2019). Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 147, 72–82. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002
  • Bengston, D. N., Westphal, L. M., Dockry, M. J., & Crabtree, J. (2021). A “serious game” to explore alternative forestry futures. Journal of Forestry, fvab059, 1–5. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab059
  • Bibri, S. E. (2018). Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(1), 13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0142-z
  • Bishop, P. C., & Hines, A. (2012). Leadership. In P. C. Bishop & A. Hines (Hrsg.), Teaching about the Future (S. 225–235). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137020703_9
  • Bitkom e.V. (2019). Künstliche Intelligenz soll dem Chef helfen – oder ihn ersetzen [Pressemeldung]. Abgerufen via www.bitkom.org/Presse/Presseinformation/Kuenstliche-Intelligenz-soll-dem-Chef-helfen-oder-ihn-ersetzen
  • Boschetti, F., Price, J., & Walker, I. (2016). Myths of the future and scenario archetypes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 76–85. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.009
  • Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795–812. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
  • Braun, K., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2018). Assessing future readiness: how a private audit contributes to addressing foresight. ECA Journal(10), 55–58. www.eca.europa.eu/lists/ecadocuments/journal18_10/journal18_10.pdf
  • Brockmann, K., Brösamle, K., Buehler, I. F., Döhrn, J., Freuding, B., Fricke, J., Hetzer, H., Huber, C. K., Keisinger, F., Schmertzing, L. (2013). Denken auf Vorrat – Strategische Vorausschau macht Deutschland fit für die Zukunft. Policy Brief Series. Abgerufen via www.stiftung-nv.de/sites/default/files/pb_government_foresight_.pdf
  • Brown, J., & Isaacs, D. (2005). The world café: Shaping our futures through conversations that matter. San Francisco, CA: McGraw-Hill Professional.
  • Cagnin, C., & Keenan, M. (2008). Positioning Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. In C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, & R. Barré (Hrsg.), Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy (S. 1–13). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2_1
  • Calcei, D., & Ohana, M. (2017). The Influence of the Adult Entertainment Industry on Technology Standards for Computer, Video, and Smartphone Applications. Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 36(3), 14–20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joe.21776
  • Carabias-Hütter, V. (2014). Introduction to the format of the Strategic Foresight Café Paper presented at the UN-CSTD, 2014–2015 Intersessional Panel, Geneva. https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/CSTD_2014_IPanel_ppt06_VicenteCarabias-Huetter_en.pdf
  • Cascio, J. (2020) Facing the Age of Chaos. Medium. Abgerufen via https://medium.com/@cascio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d
  • Cauz, J. (2013). Encyclopædia Britannica’s President on Killing Off a 244-Year-Old Product. Harvard Business Review, 91(3), 39–42. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/2013/03/encyclopaedia-britannicas-president-on-killing-off-a-244-year-old-product
  • Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Hrsg.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (S. 217–232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
  • Chermack, T. J. (2017). Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack. New York: Routledge.
    Christophilopoulos, E. (2019). SES Work/Tech 2050. Abgerufen via www.futures.gr/en/2019/02/01/ses-work-tech-2050/
  • Cole, A., & Singer, P. W. (2020). Thinking The Unthinkable With Useful Fiction. Journal of Future Conflict, Fall 2020(2), 1–13. www.queensu.ca/psychology/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.psycwww/files/files/Journal
  • Collingridge, D. G. (1982). The Social Control of Technology. London: Continuum International Publishing Group.
    Collopy, F., & Armstrong, J. S. (1992). Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations. Management Science, 38(10), 1394–1414. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.10.1394
  • Commission on Science and Technology for Development. (2015). Strategic foresight for the post-2015 development agenda (E/CN.16/2015/3). Abgerufen via https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ecn162015d3_en.pdf
  • Constine, J. (2017). Facebook is building brain-computer interfaces for typing and skin-hearing. Abgerufen via https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/19/facebook-brain-interface
  • Cornelius, P., Van de Putte, A., & Romani, M. (2005). Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell. California Management Review, 48(1), 92–109. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/41166329
  • Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67–79. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
  • Daepp, M. I. G., Hamilton, M. J., West, G. B., & Bettencourt, L. M. A. (2015). The mortality of companies. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 12(106), 20150120. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0120
  • Daheim, C., & Uerz, G. (2008). Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 321–336. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000047
  • Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
  • de Geus, A. (2002). The Living Company: Habits for Survival in a Turbulent Business Environment. Boston, Massachusetts: Harvard Business School Press.
  • de Loë, R. C., Melnychuk, N., Murray, D., & Plummer, R. (2016). Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 78–88. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.009
  • Downes, L., & Nunes, P. (2013). Blockbuster Becomes a Casualty of Big Bang Disruption. Harvard Business Review. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/2013/11/blockbuster-becomes-a-casualty-of-big-bang-disruption
  • Duncan, R. B. (1972). Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(3), 313–327. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2392145
  • Ettel, A. (2019). Welt der Zukunft: Europa vergreist – ein Museum, abhängig von Strom aus Afrika. Abgerufen via www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article192166549/Science-Fiction-Wo-deutsche-Unternehmen-an-der-Zukunft-arbeiten.html
  • Fergnani, A. (2019). The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life. foresight, 21(4), 445–466. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2018-0086
  • Fink, A., & Siebe, A. (2006). Handbuch Zukunftsmanagement: Werkzeuge der strategischen Planung und Früherkennung. Frankfurt, New York: Campus.
  • Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
  • Foster, R., & Kaplan, S. (2011). Creative Destruction: Why companies that are built to last underperform the market – And how to success fully transform them: Currency.
  • Frank, J. (2018). Future Competency Management Assessment – Empirische Entwicklung eines Kompetenzmodells zur Erfassung der Zukunftsfähigkeit einer Organisation. (MSc), Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied Sciences, Bonn.
  • Galeon, D., & Reedy, C. (2017). Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045 –Get ready for humanity 2.0. Futurism. Abgerufen via https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045
  • Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (Juni 2006). Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service. HBS Case Collection, (Case Nr. 9-306-002). Boston, MA.
  • Gary, J. E. (2010). Foresight Educator‘s Bootcamp. World Future Conference. Vancouver, Canada.
  • Gausemeier, J., & Fink, A. (1999). Führung im Wandel – Ein ganzheitliches Modell zur zukunftsorientierten Unternehmensgestaltung. München, Wien: Carl Hanser.
  • Gausemeier, J., Fink, A., & Schlake, O. (1998). Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 59(2), 111–130. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00166-2
  • Genus, A., & Stirling, A. (2018). Collingridge and the dilemma of control: Towards responsible and accountable innovation. Research Policy, 47(1), 61–69. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2017.09.012
  • Georgiadou, M. C., & Hacking, T. (2012). Strategies and techniques to future-proof the energy performance of housing developments. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 6(2), 160–174. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/17506221211242040
  • Georgiadou, M. C., Hacking, T., & Guthrie, P. (2012). A conceptual framework for future-proofing the energy performance of buildings. Energy Policy, 47, 145–155. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.039
  • Geschka, H., & Hahnenwald, H. (2013). Scenario-Based Exploratory Technology Roadmaps – A Method for the Exploration of Technical Trends. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Hrsg.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (S. 123-136). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_8
  • Gladwell, M. (2002). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (Reprint Ed.). Boston et al.: Back Bay Books.
  • Glenn, J. C. (2009). Genius forecasting, intuition and vision. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology 3.0 (S. 1–29). New York: The Millennium Project.
  • Gnatzy, T., Warth, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2011). Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach – A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1681–1694. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.006
  • Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321–333. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005
  • Gordon, T. J. (2009). Cross-Impact Analysis. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology – V3.0 (S. 1–21). Washington: The Millennium Project.
  • Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology – V3.0 (S. 1–59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
  • Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100–116. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(68)80003-5
  • Gryc, W., Helander, M., Lawrence, R., Liu, Y., Perlich, C., Reddy, C., & Rosset, S. (2009). Looking for Great Ideas: Analyzing the Innovation Jam. Paper presented at the Advances in Web Mining and Web Usage Analysis, Berlin, Heidelberg. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00528-2_2
  • Gustafson, J. L. (2011). Moore’s Law. In D. Padua (Hrsg.), Encyclopedia of Parallel Computing (S. 1177–1184). Boston, MA: Springer US.
  • Hastings, R., & Meyer, E. (2020). No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention. New York, NY: Penguin.
  • Hines, A., Gary, J. E., Daheim, C., & van der Lann, L. (2017). Building Foresight Capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model. World Futures Review, 9(3), 123–141. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717715637
  • Horton, A. (1999). A simple guide to sucessful foresight. Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 1(1), 5–9. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636689910802052
  • Huang, J. (2021). NVIDIA to Build Earth-2 Supercomputer to See Our Future [Pressemeldung]. Abgerufen via https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2021/11/12/earth-2-supercomputer
  • Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Wertschöpfung neu gedacht: Von Humanoiden, KIs und Kollege Roboter. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221974_Wertschopfung_neu_gedacht_Von_Humanoiden_KI’s_und_Kollege_Roboter
  • iKnow Project team. (2022). Welcome to iKnow: The Innovation, Foresight and Horizon Scanning System. Abgerufen via http://wiwe.iknowfutures.org/
  • Jefferson, M. (2012). Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(1), 186–197. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.007
  • Johnson, B. D. (2011). Science fiction prototyping: Designing the future with science fiction. Synthesis Lectures on Computer Science, 3(1), 1–190. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2200/S00336ED1V01Y201102CSL003
  • Jünger, S., Payne, S. A., Brine, J., Radbruch, L., & Brearley, S. G. (2017). Guidance on Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) in palliative care: Recommendations based on a methodological systematic review. Palliative Medicine, 31(8), 684–706. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216317690685
  • Kahn, J. (2019, 26. September). Learning to love the bot: Managers need to understand A.I. logic before using it as a business tool. Fortune. Abgerufen via https://fortune.com/2019/09/26/ai-business-strategy-management
  • Kanama, D. (2013). Development of Technology Foresight: Integration of Technology Roadmapping and the Delphi Method. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Hrsg.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (S. 151-171). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_10
  • Karanfil, Ö., Hosseinichimeh, N., & Duggan, J. (2020). System dynamics and bio-medical modeling. System Dynamics Review, 36(4), 389–396. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1675
  • Kayser, V., & Blind, K. (2017). Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 208–215. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.017
  • Kayser, V., & Shala, E. (2020). Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 156, 120086. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120086
  • Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15–28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
  • Klein, R., Meeuwsen, S., & Slinger, J. (2016). Strategies in an uncertain world: A Systems Dynamics analysis of different flood protection strategies. In S.D. Society (Hrsg.) Proceedings of the 34th International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Delft, Netherlands. http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:676d67a3-149c-46f2-9ed5-9d70ee240077
  • Kleiner, A. (2003). The man who saw the future. strategy+business, Spring 2003(30). Abgerufen via https://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220
  • Kok, J., & Van den Heuvel, S. C. (Hrsg.). (2019). Leading in a VUCA World: Integrating Leadership, Discernment and Spirituality. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98884-9
  • Kovaleva, A. (2012). The IE-4: Construction and Validation of a Short Scale for the Assessment of Locus of Contro. (Dr. rer. soc.), University of Mannheim, Germany, Mannheim. Abgerufen via https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-371199
  • KPMG Germany. (2022). Future Readiness: Analyze how fit your organization is for the future. Abgerufen via https://atlas.kpmg.com
  • Kreibich, R. (2006). Zukunftsforschung. ArbeitsBericht Nr. 23/2006. IZT – Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung. Berlin. Abgerufen via https://www.izt.de/fileadmin/downloads/pdf/IZT_AB23.pdf
  • Kuosa, T. (2011). Evolution of futures studies. Futures, 43(3), 327–336. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.04.001
  • Kurzweil, R. (2006). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. New York: Penguin Books.
  • Kurzweil, R. (2014). The Singularity is Near. In R. L. Sandler (Hrsg.), Ethics and Emerging Technologies (S. 393–406). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137349088_26
  • Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(5), 467–482. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.002
  • Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D. S., & Zsoter, E. (2016). ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(22), 11,852–811,858. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320
  • Lechler, S., Canzaniello, A., Roßmann, B., von der Gracht, H. A., & Hartmann, E. (2019). Real-time data processing in supply chain management: revealing the uncertainty dilemma. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 49(10), 1003–1019. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-12-2017-0398
  • Lee, S. (2013). Linking Technology Roadmapping to Patent Analysis. In M.G. Moehrle, R. Isenmann, R. Phaal (Hrsg.), Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation (S. 267-284). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_17
  • Li, X., Xie, Q., Jiang, J., Zhou, Y., & Huang, L. (2019). Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 146, 687–705. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.004
  • Liebl, F. (2000). Der Schock des Neuen: Entstehung und Management von Issues und Trends: Murmann Verlag DE.
  • Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (1975). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (Vol. 18). Reading: Addison-Wesley.
  • Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Delphi: A brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1712–1719. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.011
  • Loeffler, J. (2019). Google’s Quantum Processor May Achieve Quantum Supremacy in Months. Interesting Engineering. Abgerufen via https://interestingengineering.com/googles-quantum-processor-may-achieve-quantum-supremacy-in-months
  • Lovins, A. B. (1976a). Energy strategy: the road not taken. Foreign Affairs, 55, 65–96.
  • Lovins, A. B. (1976b). Exploring energy-efficient futures for Canada. Conserver Society Notes, 1(4), 5–16.
  • Lovins, A. B. (1977). Soft energy paths: Toward a durable peace. San Francisco, CA: Friends of the earth international.
    Loye, D. (1980). Personality and prediction. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 16(2), 93–104. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(80)90001-3
  • Luoto, L., & Lonkila, A. (2018). The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Hrsg.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (S. 105–131). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_7
  • Mainzer, K. (2021). Künstliche Intelligenz – Zukunft von Governance und Leadership? In S. Kisgen (Hrsg.), Leadership – Transdisciplinary Writings (Dedicated to Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c. Werner G. Faix on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday) (1. Aufl., S. 29–56). Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
  • Marien, M. (2002). Futures studies in the 21st century: a reality-based view. Futures, 34(3–4), 261–281. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00043-X
  • Markmann, C., Spickermann, A., von der Gracht, H. A., & Brem, A. (2021). Improving the question formulation in Delphi-like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. Futures & Foresight Science, 3(1), e56. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.56
  • Martin, W. T., & Sharp, J. M. (1973). Reverse factor analysis: A modification of relevance tree techniques. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 4(4), 355–373. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(73)90076-0
  • Mauksch, S., von der Gracht, H. A., & Gordon, T. J. (2020). Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119982. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982
  • Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.
  • Meyer, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Hartmann, E. (2020). How Organizations Prepare for the Future: A Comparative Study of Firm Size and Industry. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 511–523. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.2992539
  • Moore, G. E. (1965). Cramming more components onto integrated circuits. Electronics, 38(8), 114–117. https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/05/moores-law-electronics.pdf
  • Müller, A. W. (2008). Strategic Foresight: Prozesse strategischer Trend-und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen. Universität St. Gallen, St. Gallen. (Dissertation Nr. 3521)
  • Müllert, N., & Jungk, R. (1987). Future Workshops: How to create desirable futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions.
  • Münch, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2021). A bibliometric review of scientific theory in futures and foresight: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021. Futures & Foresight Science, 3(3–4), e88. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.88
  • Murty, D. S., & Wakeford, T. (2011). Farmer foresight: an experiment in South India. In M. Pimbert & T. Wakeford (Hrsg.), Deliberative Democracy and Citizen Empowerment (Vol. PLA Notes 40, S. 46–51). London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/G01291.pdf
  • Nazarko, J., Ejdys, J., Halicka, K., Magruk, A., Nazarko, Ł., & Skorek, A. (2017). Application of enhanced SWOT analysis in the future-oriented public management of technology. Procedia engineering, 182, 482–490. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.140
  • Novak, M. (2022). Paleofuture: The history of the future. Abgerufen via https://paleofuture.com/
  • O’Reilly, L. (2017). A Japanese ad agency invented an AI creative director – and ad execs preferred its ad to a human’s. Business Insider. Abgerufen via www.businessinsider.com/mccann-japans-ai-creative-director-creates-better-ads-than-a-human-2017-3
  • Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
  • Petersen, J. L. (2000). Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (2. Aufl.): Madison Books.
  • Phantastische Bibliothek Wetzlar. (2019). Future Life: We read the future. Science fiction as a hidden treasury for technical developments – An interdisciplinary future project. Abgerufen via https://www.phantastik.eu/images/future%20life_englisch.pdf
  • Phillips, F. (2019). The Present and the Future. In F. Phillips (Hrsg.), What About the Future? New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity (S. 119–131). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8_11
  • Poli, R. (2018). A note on the classification of future-related methods. European Journal of Futures Research, 6(1), 15. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-018-0145-9
  • Popper, R. (2008a). Foresight Methodology. In L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena, M. Keenan, I. Miles, & R. Popper (Hrsg.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (S. 44–88). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
  • Popper, R. (2008b). How are foresight methods selected? Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 10(6), 62–89. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586
  • Popper, R. (2011). About Futures Diamond: The Framework. Abgerufen via www.futuresdiamond.com/the-diamond
  • Porter, M. E. (2008). The five competitive forces that shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 86(1), 78–93. https://hbr.org/2008/01/the-five-competitive-forces-that-shape-strategy
  • Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). Rethinking the 2×2 scenario method: Grid or frames? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 86, 254–264. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.020
  • RAND Corporation. (2021). A Brief History of RAND. Abgerufen via www.rand.org/about/history/a-brief-history-of-rand.html
  • RAND Corporation (Hrsg.) (1946). Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship (Document Number: SM-11827 ed.). Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/special_memoranda/SM11827.html
  • Randers, J., & Göluke, U. (2007). Forecasting turning points in shipping freight rates: lessons from 30 years of practical effort. System Dynamics Review, 23(2–3), 253–284. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.376
  • Rich, B. D. (2013). The 10 Principles Of Future-Proofing Historic Buildings: And the Role of Computational Simulation Software in Future-Proofing. Abgerufen via https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25063.29603
  • Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked problems – social messes: Decision support modelling with morphological analysis (Vol. 17). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9
  • Robert-Jungk-Bibliothek für Zukunftsfragen (JBZ). (2021). Die JBZ. Abgerufen via https://jungk-bibliothek.org/die-jbz-2
  • Rohrbeck, R. (2011). Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg: Physica. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2626-5
  • Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
  • Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129, 105–116. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013
  • Rüppel, H. (2004). Zukunftswerkstatt-online – Wege zu einer telekooperativen Lernkultur? Explorative Erkundung zur Theorie und Praxis einer telekooperativen Lernumgebung (Dr. phil.), University of Kassel, Kassel. Abgerufen via http://www.urn.fi/urn:nbn:de:hebis:34-1507
  • Sarkar, A. (2016). We live in a VUCA World: the importance of responsible leadership. Development and Learning in Organizations: An International Journal, 30(3). Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/DLO-07-2015-0062
  • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1998). Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning. In L. Fahey & R. M. Randall (Hrsg.), Learning from the Future. Competitive Foresight Scenarios (S. 422–431). New York et al.: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2008). Our Decision Model. Critical Thinking: Real-World, Real-Time Decisions. Philadelphia, US.
  • Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2020). How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(3–4), e35. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.35
  • Schoemaker, P. J. H., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Superforecasting: How to upgrade your company’s judgment. Harvard Business Review, 94(5), 73–78. https://hbr.org/2016/05/superforecasting-how-to-upgrade-your-companys-judgment
  • Šefčovič, M. (2021). College read-out on the 2021 Strategic Foresight Report by Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič. Abgerufen via https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/read_21_4623
  • Shead, S. L. (2021, 9th April). Elon Musk’s Neuralink explains how a monkey used its brain-computer tech to play Pong. CNBC News. Abgerufen via www.cnbc.com/2021/04/09/elon-musks-neuralink-shows-video-of-monkey-using-mind-to-play-pong.html
  • Slaughter, R. A. (2002). Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst. Futures, 34(3–4), 349–363. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(01)00049-0
  • SpaceX. (2022). Mars & Beyond: The Road to Making Humanity Multiplanetary. Abgerufen via www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/mars
  • Speth, F. (2021, 16. Dezember). Zukunft der Zukunftsforschung. Top Trends for 2022 and Beyond. GS1 Xmas Special meetup.
  • Spickermann, A., Zimmermann, M., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection – Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 85, 105–120. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.04.009
  • Sprenger, S. (2021). French sci-fi writers set out to ‘scare’ the military establishment. DefenseNews. Abgerufen via www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/04/30/french-sci-fi-writers-set-out-to-scare-the-military-establishment
  • Steinmüller, A., & Steinmüller, K. (2004). Wild Cards – Wenn das Unwahrscheinliche eintritt (2. Aufl.). Hamburg: Murmann.
  • Sweeney, J. A., Baker, M. T., Daheim, C., Dujardin, Y., Dunagan, J., Eklund, K., Haldenby, T., Rosa, A. B., Stovall, G., Yeomans, G. (2019). Anticipatory Games and Simulations. In R. Poli (Hrsg.), Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making (S. 1399–1427). Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_94-1
  • System Alliance (Hrsg.) (2012). System Alliance Zukunftsreport 2.0. Niederaula: System Alliance.
  • Taleb, N. N. (2010). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2. Aufl.). New York: Random House.
    The Futures Group (2009). Relevance Tress. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology-V3.0 (S. 1–11). Washington: The Millennium Project.
  • The Sustainable Development Solutions Network. (2015). SDG Guide: Tools for designing SDG strategies and roadmaps (Chapter 3). Abgerufen via https://sdg.guide/chapter-3-tools-for-designing-sdg-strategies-and-roadmaps-a8172680d5ef
  • Thomas, A. (2017). Super-intelligence and eternal life: transhumanism’s faithful follow it blindly into a future for the elite. The Conversation – Academic rigour, journalistic flair. Abgerufen via https://theconversation.com/super-intelligence-and-eternal-life-transhumanisms-faithful-follow-it-blindly-into-a-future-for-the-elite-78538
  • Turoff, M. (1970). The design of a policy Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2(2), 149–171. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(70)90161-7
  • Vallet, F., Puchinger, J., Millonig, A., Lamé, G., & Nicolaï, I. (2020). Tangible futures: Combining scenario thinking and personas – A pilot study on urban mobility. Futures, 117, 102513. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102513
    van ‘t Klooster, S. A., & van Asselt, M. B. A. (2006). Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures, 38(1), 15–30. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.04.019
  • Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2. Aufl.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Vlastelica, R. (2020). Netflix Market Cap Surpasses Disney Amid ‘Stay at Home’ Orders. Abgerufen via www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/netflix-market-cap-surpasses-disney-amid-stay-at-home-orders
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2012). Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: Review and implications for future quality assurance. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(8), 1525–1536. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.013
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2013a). Mach die Zukunft: Future Tool Box. In H. A. von der Gracht (Hrsg.), Survive: So bleiben Manager auch in Zukunft erfolgreich (S. 207–233). München: Redline.
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2013b). Survive: So bleiben Manager auch in Zukunft erfolgreich. München: Redline Wirtschaft.
  • von der Gracht, H. A. (2020). Entwicklung (Post-)Pandemischer Basisszenarien. Köln: KPMG Germany.
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Bañuls, V. A., Turoff, M., Skulimowski, A. M. J., & Gordon, T. J. (2015). Foresight support systems: The future role of ICT for foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 1–6. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.08.010
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Kisgen, S., Lange, N., & Jalufka, J. (2021). Die Zukunft der europäischen Generika- & Biosimilarsindustrie 2030plus. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Salcher, M., & Kerssenbrock, N. G. (2016a). Liberate Your Mind: Wild Cards. In H. A. von der Gracht, M. Salcher, & N. G. Kerssenbrock (Hrsg.), The Energy Challenge: A License for Navigating the Future (S. 70–81). München: Redline Wirtschaft.
  • von der Gracht, H. A., Salcher, M., & Kerssenbrock, N. G. (2016b). Looking Beyond the Horizon: Four Scenarios. In H. A. von der Gracht, M. Salcher, & N. G. Kerssenbrock (Hrsg.), The Energy Challenge: A License for Navigating the Future (S. 36–54). München: Redline Wirtschaft.
  • von der Gracht, H. A., & Stillings, C. (2013). An innovation-focused scenario process — A case from the materials producing industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 599–610. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.009
  • von Reibnitz, U. H. (2010). There Is Always an Alternative: Discover and Shape Your Personal and Professional Future: BoD–Books on Demand.
  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight – The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 5(3), 10–21. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379
  • Voros, J. (2017). Big History and anticipation: Using Big History as a framework for global foresight. In R. Poli (Hrsg.), Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making (S. 1–40). Cham: Springer International. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_95-1
  • Wack, P. (1985a). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139–150. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids
  • Wack, P. (1985b). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 72–89. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead
  • Watson, D., Clark, L. A., & Tellegen, A. (1988). Development and validation of brief measures of positive and negative affect: The PANAS scales. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54(6), 1063–1070. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.6.1063
  • Wieduwilt, F. M., & Riemer, F. (2021). The Future Game 2050. Abgerufen via www.thefuturegame2050.com
    Wilkinson, A., & Kupers, R. (2013). Living in the futures. Harvard Business Review, 91(5), 118–127. Abgerufen via https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures
  • Willyard, C. H., & McClees, C. W. (1987). Motorola’s Technology Roadmap Process. Research Management, 30(5), 13–19. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00345334.1987.11757057
  • World Future Society. (2021). World Future Society® Awaken the Futurist Mindset in everyone in order to co-create new civilization systems. Abgerufen via www.worldfuture.org
  • Zimmermann, M., Darkow, I.-L., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2012). Integrating Delphi and participatory backcasting in pursuit of trustworthiness—the case of electric mobility in Germany. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(9), 1605–1621. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.016

Liane Windisch

Director Innovation and International Projects
Email: windisch@steinbeis-sibe.de
Phone: +49 70 32 – 94 58 – 92

Our Leadership development program

SIBE edition

Leadership. Education. Personality.

Leadership and Performance

Leadership Competency (coming soon)

Digital Leadership and Artifical Intelligence (coming soon)

Ethical Leadership (coming soon)

Leadership. Transformation. Innovation (coming soon)

Leadership and Futures Research (coming soon)

Leadership and Sustainability (coming soon)

Leadership and Networks (coming soon)