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SIBE edition

Management der Zukunft

Heiko von der Gracht, Stefanie Kisgen

Eine zukunftsfähige Organisation braucht zukunftsfähige Führung. Dieses Buch vermittelt die zehn zentralen Bausteine der Strategischen Vorausschau. Wer sie durcharbeitet, gewinnt das gereifte Zukunftsbewusstsein und die nötige Kompetenz, um die geeigneten Prozesse und Methoden innerhalb der eigenen Organisation zukunftsfähig aufzustellen.

Jede der drei Phasen des Vorausschau-Prozesses (Scanning, Foresight, Transfer) wird im Detail behandelt. Die Leserinnen und Leser erhalten einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Methoden des Zukunftsmanagements. Mittels praktischer Beispiele zeigen die Autoren, wie Entscheider aller Organisationen systematisch Zukunftsszenarien entwickeln und auf den eigenen Organisationskontext transferieren können. Fragen zum Verständnis runden die Kapitel ab.

Leserinnen und Leser erwerben damit jene Zukunftskompetenz, die an vielen Schnittstellen in und zu Organisationen einen zukunftsentscheidenden Beitrag leisten kann: Strategie, Controlling und Consulting, Leadership und Transformation, Innovations- und Risikomanagement, Marketing sowie Kommunikation.

1 Das kleine Einmaleins der Zukunftsforschung: Grundlagen und Überblick

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Benavides Rincón, G., & Díaz-Domínguez, A. (2022). Assessing futures literacy as an academic competence for the deployment of foresight competencies. Futures, 135, 102872. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102872
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67–79. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report: Charting the Course Towards a More Resilient Europe. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/strategic_foresight_report_2020_1_0.pdf
European Commission. (2021). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/foresight_report_com750_en.pdf
Fergnani, A. (2020). Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Academy of Management Perspectives (in Press). Doi: https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2018.0178
LugoSantiago, J. A. (2020). Leadership Practices in Foresight City. In J. A. LugoSantiago (Hrsg.), Leadership and Strategic Foresight in Smart Cities: A Futures Thinking Model (S. 127–157). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49020-1_11
OECD. (2019). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies – Building Effective Governance in the Face of Uncertain Futures. www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic Foresight for Better Policies.pdf
Peterson, A., & Wu, A. (2021). Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management Journal, 42(13), 2357–2388. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3327
Slaughter, R., & Hines, A. (Hrsg.). (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020: Association of Professional Futurists and Foresight International.
The Millennium Project. (2021). Global Futures Studies & Research. www.millennium-project.org

2 Organisation ist die halbe Zukunft: Der Vorausschau-Prozess

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Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(11), 135–148. https://hbr.org/2005/11/scanning-the-periphery
Gordon, A. V., Ramic, M., Rohrbeck, R., & Spaniol, M. J. (2020). 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119966. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119966
Popp, R., & Schüll, E. (Hrsg.). (2009). Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung: Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4
Popp, R., & Zweck, A. (Hrsg.). (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (Vol. 3). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019

3 Methoden der Strategischen Vorausschau

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

Armstrong, J. S. (Hrsg.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579–1602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Hrsg.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting–A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69–80. Abgerufen via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Hrsg.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (S. 27–52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
Poli, R. (Hrsg.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system—Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47–64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Hrsg.), The Future of Logistics (S. 21–68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

4 Szenarien sind Kunst und Wissenschaft zugleich

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Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Hrsg.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (S. 37–48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Denkanstoß Covid-19: Zukunftsszenarien für ein nachhaltiges Südtirol 2030+. Bozen: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft.
www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2. Aufl.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Zukunftsbarometer „Antriebskonzepte der Zukunft“. In F.-R. Esch (Hrsg.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

5 Der Blick über den Tellerrand

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Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75–94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 (S. 1–59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transport. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079–1097. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (S. 87–126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292–312. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research—Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66–73. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

6 Trendmanagement und Business Wargaming

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Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al.: McGraw-Hill Education.
Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Hrsg.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, S. 210–220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523–543. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59–66. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291–303. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

7 Zukunftskompetenz entwickeln

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Association of Professional Futurists. (2016). Foresight Competency Model – 1.1. www.apf.org
Chen, K.-H., Hsu, L.-P., & Hoffman, J. (2021). Reevaluating the Foresight Styles Assessment: A Measurement of Futures Competency for University Students. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 19–32. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/02-Chen-Reevaluating-FSA-futures-compentency-ED-9-Layout.pdf
Dian, N. (2009). Foresight styles assessment: a theory based study in competency and change. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 59–74. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/133-A05.pdf
Durst, C., Durst, M., Kolonko, T., Neef, A., & Greif, F. (2015). A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 91–104. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.005
Gary, J. E. (2019). Foresight Training: Moving from Design to Evaluation. World Futures Review, 11(4), 351–359. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719851524
Gary, J. E., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study. Futures, 71, 132–145. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15–28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
Rohrbeck, R., Thom, N., & Arnold, H. (2015). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 115–126. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015
Salo, A., & Gustafsson, T. (2004). A group support system for foresight processes. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(3–4), 249–269. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004985
World Economic Forum. (2021). Future Readiness of SMEs: Mobilizing the SME Sector to Drive Widespread Sustainability and Prosperity https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_Readiness_of_SMEs_2021.pdf

8 Blick in die Zukunft

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Fidler, D. (2015). Here’s How Managers Can Be Replaced by Software. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2015/04/heres-how-managers-can-be-replaced-by-software
Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2018). When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62, 729–754. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.11222
Harari, Y. N. (2018). Homo Deus: A brief history of tomorrow (Nachdruck Ausgabe). New York: Harper Collins.
Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots – Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327622476_Rethinking_the_value_chain_A_study_on_AI_humanoids_and_robots_-_Artificial_Intelligence_Possible_business_application_and_development_scenarios_to_2040
Kling, M.-U. (2020). Qualityland: Visit Tomorrow, Today! London: Orion Publishing Co.
Parent-Rocheleau, X., & Parker, S. K. (2021). Algorithms as work designers: How algorithmic management influences the design of jobs. Human Resource Management Review, 32(3), 100838. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2021.100838
Petta Gomes da Costa, D. L. (2019). Reviewing the Concept of Technological Singularities: How Can It Explain Human Evolution? NanoEthics, 13(2), 119–130. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00339-2
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Vintage Books.
van der Laan, L., & Yap, J. (2016). On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Futures. In L. van der Laan & J. Yap (Hrsg.), Foresight & Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: Practice and Theory to Build Enterprises of the Future (S. 181–198). Singapore: Springer Singapore. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-597-6_9

9 Zukunft gestalten

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14–36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718–733. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373–391. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation—A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537–550. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Hrsg.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Mittelstand. Erfahrungen der Zukunfts-Werkstatt 2020 der Stückgutkooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Hrsg.), Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (S. 231–248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633–645. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

10 Zukunftsprojekte managen

Weiterführende Quellen: zum Lesen, Schauen, Surfen …

Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Hrsg.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2. Aufl., S. 259–260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Hrsg.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (S. 217–232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322–330. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654–1670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1–22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Hrsg.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (S. 43–62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4

12 Literatur

Weiterführende Quellen

Kapitel 1 Das kleine Einmaleins der Zukunftsforschung: Grundlagen und Überblick

Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes, and Knowledges (Vol. 1). New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
Benavides Rincón, G., & Díaz-Domínguez, A. (2022). Assessing futures literacy as an academic competence for the deployment of foresight competencies. Futures, 135, 102872. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102872
Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6), 67–79. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty
European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report: Charting the Course Towards a More Resilient Europe. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/strategic_foresight_report_2020_1_0.pdf
European Commission. (2021). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/foresight_report_com750_en.pdf
Fergnani, A. (2020). Corporate foresight: A new frontier for strategy and management. Academy of Management Perspectives (in Press). Doi: https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2018.0178
LugoSantiago, J. A. (2020). Leadership Practices in Foresight City. In J. A. LugoSantiago (Hrsg.), Leadership and Strategic Foresight in Smart Cities: A Futures Thinking Model (S. 127–157). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49020-1_11
OECD. (2019). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies – Building Effective Governance in the Face of Uncertain Futures. http://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic%20Foresight%20for%20Better%20Policies.pdf
Peterson, A., & Wu, A. (2021). Entrepreneurial learning and strategic foresight. Strategic Management Journal, 42(13), 2357–2388. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3327
Slaughter, R., & Hines, A. (Hrsg.). (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020: Association of Professional Futurists and Foresight International.
The Millennium Project. (2021). Global Futures Studies & Research. www.millennium-project.org

Kapitel 2 Organisation ist die halbe Zukunft: Der Vorausschau-Prozess

Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(11), 135–148. https://hbr.org/2005/11/scanning-the-periphery
Gordon, A. V., Ramic, M., Rohrbeck, R., & Spaniol, M. J. (2020). 50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 154, 119966. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119966
Popp, R., & Schüll, E. (Hrsg.). (2009). Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung: Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78564-4
Popp, R., & Zweck, A. (Hrsg.). (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (Vol. 3). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019

Kapitel 3 Methoden der Strategischen Vorausschau

Armstrong, J. S. (Hrsg.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Vol. 30). Boston, MA: Springer Science & Business Media. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3
Bañuls, V. A., & Turoff, M. (2011). Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1579–1602. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.014
Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., & Barré, R. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
Daim, T. U., Pizarro, M., & Talla, R. (Hrsg.). (2014). Planning and Roadmapping Technological Innovations: Cases and Tools. Cham: Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02973-3
Flostrand, A., Pitt, L., & Bridson, S. (2020). The Delphi technique in forecasting–A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 150, 119773. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119773
Grim, T. (2009). Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69–80. Abgerufen via https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE05.pdf
Karlsen, J. E., & Karlsen, H. (2013). Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies. In M. Giaoutzi & B. Sapio (Hrsg.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (S. 27–52). Boston, MA: Springer US. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_3
Kisgen, S. (2017). The future of business leadership education in tertiary education for graduates. Stuttgart: Steinbeis-Edition.
Kononiuk, A., & Sacio-Szymańska, A. (2016). Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies – a regional perspective. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9
Poli, R. (Hrsg.) (2019). Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Cham: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3
Popper, R. (2021). Rafael Popper’s Blog: Keeping track of my Foresight, Futures Studies and Innovation research, networking and knowledge transfer activities. https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com
Prokesch, T., von der Gracht, H. A., & Wohlenberg, H. (2015). Integrating prediction market and Delphi methodology into a foresight support system—Insights from an online game. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 47–64. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.021
von der Gracht, H. A. (2008). The Delphi Technique for Futures Research. In H. A. von der Gracht (Hrsg.), The Future of Logistics (S. 21–68). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9764-7_3

Kapitel 4 Szenarien sind Kunst und Wissenschaft zugleich

Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Fergnani, A., & Jackson, M. (2019). Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(2), e17. Doi: https://doi.org10.1002/ffo2.17
Gaßner, R., & Steinmüller, K. (2018). Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight. In R. Peperhove, K. Steinmüller, & H.-L. Dienel (Hrsg.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures : Scenarios as a Tool in Security, Privacy and Mobility Research (S. 37–48). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_3
von der Gracht, H. A., Giunipero, L., Schüller, M. (2016) Future-proof procurement – Now or never: The big procurement transformation. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327222048_Future-proof_procurement_-_Now_or_never_The_big_procurement_transformation_English_version
Habicher, D., Windegger, F., Gruber, M., Dibiasi, A., Klotz, G., Erschbamer, G., Pechlaner, H., von der Gracht, Heiko A., Gigante, S., Ghirardello, L. (2020). Denkanstoß Covid-19: Zukunftsszenarien für ein nachhaltiges Südtirol 2030+. Bozen: Eurac Research. www.researchgate.net/publication/346008204_Denkanstoss_Covid-19_Zukunftsszenarien_fur_ein_nachhaltiges_Sudtirol_2030
Kupers, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2014). The Essence of Scenarios: Learning from the Shell Experience. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
Mayer, M., Quinten, D., von der Gracht, H. A., Schröder, C. P., Kisgen, S. (2019) World without Money? The guide to the future of banks. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/362791258_World_without_Money_The_guide_to_the_future_of_banks
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rowland, N. J., & Spaniol, M. J. (2021). The strategic conversation, 25 years later: A retrospective review of Kees van der Heijden’s Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Futures & Foresight Science, (4)2, e102. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.102
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation (2. Aufl.). Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
Warth, J., Zimmermann, M., von der Gracht, H. A., Darkow, I.-L., Esch, F.-R., Langenhan, F., Georgi, C. (2011) AIM Automotive Zukunftsbarometer „Antriebskonzepte der Zukunft“. In F.-R. Esch (Hrsg.), Studies in Automotive & Mobility Management. Oestrich-Winkel: EBS Business School. www.researchgate.net/publication/327221673_AIM_Automotive_Zukunftsbarometer_Vol_1_Antriebskonzepte_der_Zukunft
Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899

Kapitel 5 Der Blick über den Tellerrand

Barber, M. (2006). Wildcards – Signals from a future near you. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(1), 75–94. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/111-A05.pdf
Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental Scanning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Hrsg.), Futures Research Methodology—V3.0 (S. 1–59). Washington: The Millennium Project.
Hauptman, A., Hoppe, M., & Raban, Y. (2015). Wild cards in transport. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–24. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0066-9
Markley, O. (2011). A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(6), 1079–1097. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008
Mićić, P. (2010). Your red futures glasses: How could the future surprise you? The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model (S. 87–126). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230275317_5
Saritas, O., & Smith, J. E. (2011). The Big Picture – trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. Futures, 43(3), 292–312. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.007
Schwarz, J. O., Kroehl, R., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). Novels and novelty in trend research—Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 84, 66–73. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

Kapitel 6 Trendmanagement und Business Wargaming

Cuhls, K. E. (2020). Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(1), e23. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.23
Herman, M. L., & Frost, M. D. (2009). Wargaming for Leaders: Strategic Decision Making from the Battlefield to the Boardroom New York et al.: McGraw-Hill Education.
Kowalik, A. (2021). The Perception of Business Wargaming Practices Among Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals. In M. Wardaszko, S. Meijer, H. Lukosch, H. Kanegae, W. C. Kriz, & M. Grzybowska-Brzezińska (Hrsg.), Simulation Gaming Through Times and Disciplines (Lecture Notes in Computer Science) (Vol. 11988, S. 210–220). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72132-9_19
Lopes, M. C., Fialho, F. A. P., Cunha, C. J. C. A., & Niveiros, S. I. (2013). Business Games for Leadership Development: A Systematic Review. Simulation & Gaming, 44(4), 523–543. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112471509
Phillips, F. (2019). What About the Future?: New Perspectives on Planning, Forecasting and Complexity. Cham: Springer Nature. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26165-8
Schwarz, J. O. (2013). Business wargaming for teaching strategy making. Futures, 51, 59–66. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.06.002
Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming From an Open Strategy Perspective. World Futures Review, 12(3), 291–303. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001
Oriesek, D. F., & Schwarz, J. O. (2020). Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming. New York: Routledge.
Kjaer, A. L. (2014). The Trend Management Toolkit – A Practical Guide to the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137370099

Kapitel 7 Zukunftskompetenz entwickeln

Association of Professional Futurists. (2016). Foresight Competency Model – 1.1. www.apf.org
Chen, K.-H., Hsu, L.-P., & Hoffman, J. (2021). Reevaluating the Foresight Styles Assessment: A Measurement of Futures Competency for University Students. Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 19–32. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/02-Chen-Reevaluating-FSA-futures-compentency-ED-9-Layout.pdf
Dian, N. (2009). Foresight styles assessment: a theory based study in competency and change. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 59–74. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/133-A05.pdf
Durst, C., Durst, M., Kolonko, T., Neef, A., & Greif, F. (2015). A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 91–104. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.005
Gary, J. E. (2019). Foresight Training: Moving from Design to Evaluation. World Futures Review, 11(4), 351–359. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719851524
Gary, J. E., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study. Futures, 71, 132–145. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.005
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Keller, J., Markmann, C., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2015). Foresight support systems to facilitate regional innovations: A conceptualization case for a German logistics cluster. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 15–28. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.031
Rohrbeck, R., Thom, N., & Arnold, H. (2015). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 97, 115–126. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015
Salo, A., & Gustafsson, T. (2004). A group support system for foresight processes. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(3–4), 249–269. Doi: https://doi.org10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004985
World Economic Forum. (2021). Future Readiness of SMEs: Mobilizing the SME Sector to Drive Widespread Sustainability and Prosperity. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_Readiness_of_SMEs_2021.pdf

Kapitel 8 Blick in die Zukunft

Fidler, D. (2015). Here’s How Managers Can Be Replaced by Software. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2015/04/heres-how-managers-can-be-replaced-by-software
Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2018). When will AI exceed human performance? Evidence from AI experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62, 729–754. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.11222
Harari, Y. N. (2018). Homo Deus: A brief history of tomorrow (Nachdruck Ausgabe). New York: Harper Collins.
Huber-Straßer, A., Schüller, M., Müller, N., von der Gracht, H. A., Lichtenau, P., & Zühlke, H. M. (2018). Rethinking the value chain. A study on AI, humanoids and robots – Artificial Intelligence: Possible business application and development scenarios to 2040. Berlin: KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft. www.researchgate.net/publication/327622476_Rethinking_the_value_chain_A_study_on_AI_humanoids_and_robots_-Artificial_Intelligence_Possible_business_application_and_development_scenarios_to_2040
Kling, M.-U. (2020). Qualityland: Visit Tomorrow, Today! London: Orion Publishing Co.
Parent-Rocheleau, X., & Parker, S. K. (2021). Algorithms as work designers: How algorithmic management influences the design of jobs. Human Resource Management Review (in Press), 100838. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2021.100838
Petta Gomes da Costa, D. L. (2019). Reviewing the Concept of Technological Singularities: How Can It Explain Human Evolution? NanoEthics, 13(2), 119–130. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11569-019-00339-2
Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. New York: Vintage Books.
van der Laan, L., & Yap, J. (2016). On the Horizon: Asia Pacific Futures. In L. van der Laan & J. Yap (Hrsg.), Foresight & Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: Practice and Theory to Build Enterprises of the Future (S. 181–198). Singapore: Springer Singapore. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-597-6_9

Kapitel 9 Zukunft gestalten

Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Vishnevskiy, K. (2020). Corporate foresight for strategic innovation management: the case of a Russian service company. Foresight, 22(1), 14–36. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-02-2019-0011
Calof, J., Meissner, D., & Razheva, A. (2018). Overcoming open innovation challenges: a contribution from foresight and foresight networks. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 718–733. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1351609
Förster, B., Keller, J., von der Gracht, H. A., & Darkow, I.-L. (2014). Delphi-based strategic issue management: crafting consumer goods supply chain strategy. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 44(5), 373–391. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-09-2012-0289
Hiltunen, E. (2013). Foresight and Innovation: How Companies are Coping with the Future. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137337702
Ketonen-Oksi, S. (2020). Developing Organizational Futures Orientation – A Single Case Study Exploring and Conceptualizing the Transformation Process in Practice. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 69(2), 537-550. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.3038283
Rohrbeck, R., & Gemünden, H. G. (2011). Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231–243. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019
Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Hrsg.). (2013). Scenario-based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Wiesbaden: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6
von der Gracht, H. A., Albert, B., & Krupp, T. (2013). Zukunftsforschung im Mittelstand. Erfahrungen der Zukunfts-Werkstatt 2020 der Stückgutkooperation System Alliance. In R. Popp & A. Zweck (Hrsg.), Zukunftsforschung im Praxistest (S. 231–248). Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-19837-8_10
von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I.-L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, 42(4), 380–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023
Yoon, J., Kim, Y., Vonortas, N. S., & Han, S. W. (2018). Corporate foresight and innovation: the effects of integrative capabilities and organisational learning. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(6), 633–645. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2017.1395407

Kapitel 10 Zukunftsprojekte managen

Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151, 119855. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855
Cairns, G., & Wright, G. (2018). Appendix: Suggested Timetable for a 24-hour Scenario Project. In G. Cairns & G. Wright (Hrsg.), Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World (2. Aufl., S. 259–260). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Managing scenario projects. In T. J. Chermack (Hrsg.), Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios (S. 217–232). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Chimal, A. (2020). Futures Fallacies – Our Common Delusions When Thinking About the Future, Journal of Futures Studies, (April 2020). https://jfsdigital.org/2020/07/18/future_fallacies
Dorr, A. (2017). Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 322–330. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.018
Ecken, P., Gnatzy, T., & von der Gracht, H. A. (2011). Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1654–1670. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.006
Schirrmeister, E., Göhring, A.-L., & Warnke, P. (2020). Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Futures & Foresight Science, 2(2), e31. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.31
Thompson, N. A., & Byrne, O. (2021). Imagining Futures: Theorizing the Practical Knowledge of Future-making. Organization Studies, 1–22. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/01708406211053222
Meissner, D. (2013). Instruments to measure Foresight. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Hrsg.), Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future: Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies (S. 43–62). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_4

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